Actual vs Theoretical GP Calculator
Compare actual GP against theoretical GP after stocktake. Spot unexplained variance, waste, over-portioning, comps and margin leakage — and see the annualised cost if it continues.
Target vs theoretical vs actual GP
Variance can come from over-portioning, incorrect recipes, unrecorded waste, supplier price changes, complimentary items, stock-counting errors, unrecorded staff consumption or stock loss.
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Actual GP is what your stocktake proves you made. Theoretical GP is what your recipes and till say you should have made. When the two drift apart, money is leaking somewhere between purchase and till.
Formula: Actual COS = Opening + Purchases + Transfers in − Closing − Transfers out. Actual GP % = (Net sales − Actual COS) ÷ Net sales × 100. Variance = Actual GP % − Theoretical GP %.
Use it after every stocktake. A 1–2 point variance is normal noise; anything larger points to portioning, recipe accuracy, unrecorded waste, comps, supplier price changes or stock loss.
Frequently asked questions
What is a healthy GP variance?+
Under 1 percentage point is well controlled. 1–2 points is normal for a busy operation. Above 3 points is worth a proper investigation.
Why is my actual GP lower than theoretical?+
The usual suspects are over-portioning, incorrect recipes on the till, unrecorded waste, missed comps and staff drinks, supplier price rises since the recipe was costed, and stock-count errors.
How often should I stocktake?+
Weekly for wet stock, monthly for food. The more frequent the count, the smaller the variance you can act on.
Does this replace an EPOS stock module?+
No — it's a fast operator view. If your EPOS gives you both numbers, use this to interpret them and drive action.